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Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio — Ligue 2 2018

Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ajaccio
Ajaccio
B. Santelli 77' (pen)
1/31/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 21Stade Gabriel-Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Clermont Foot45%
×Draw29%
Ajaccio26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clermont Foot
1.27
Ajaccio
0.90

Clermont Foot creates 41% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 104 away

creates per match

Clermont Foot
1.31
Ajaccio
0.76

allows per match

Clermont Foot
1.03
Ajaccio
1.24

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par
Ajaccio+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Ajaccio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw
74%
Clermont Foot or Ajaccio
71%
Draw or Ajaccio
55%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+
20%
Ajaccio wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals
72%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
36%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
14%
Ajaccio 1+ goals
59%
Ajaccio 2+ goals
23%
Ajaccio 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
63%
Ajaccio (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 94 matches

Ajaccio away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.24 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.31 + Ajaccio defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ajaccio attack 0.76 + Clermont Foot defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Clermont Foot scores more
45%
level
29%
Ajaccio scores more
26%

Clermont Foot at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
C. VidalAjaccioAjaccio · D
8.2

Match Events

10'
T. Diagouraga← Y. Magnin
35'
Tony Strata
49'
Tidyane Diagouraga
63'
Josue Isala
67'
I. M'Bahia← T. Diagouraga
73'
B. Santelli← A. Kanté
77'
B. SantelliPenalty
78'
Y. Armougom← M. Douane
78'
O. Diop← Y. Diaby
78'
F. Diédhiou← M. Bassouamina
86'
Benjamin Santelli
90'
I. Chegra← M. Soumano

Possession

68%Clermont

Shots

17Clermont

Pass accuracy

53%Clermont

Statistics

ClermontAjaccio
Overview
68%Possession32%
17Total Shots6
7Corners2
17Fouls12
Shots
17Total Shots6
3On Target5
4Off Target0
10Blocked1
6Inside Box6
11Outside Box0
Passing
68%Possession32%
618Total Passes306
562Accurate Passes248
91%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
0Offsides3

Ligue 2: Clermont Foot 0–1 Ajaccio

Ajaccio beat Clermont Foot 1-0 in Ligue 2 on January 31, 2025.

Goals: B. Santelli (77' pen).

Clermont Foot controlled possession (68%) and registered 17 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied in Clermont-Ferrand.