Ajaccio 0–2 Clermont Foot: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Ajaccio

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Clermont Foot

M. Bayo 58'

J. Allevinah 54'

2/20/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 26Stade François Coty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Ajaccio42%

×Draw30%

Clermont Foot28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AjaccioExpected goals in this matchClermont Foot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.88

Ajaccio

1.15

Clermont Foot

0.88

Ajaccio creates 31% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 98 away

1.14

creates per match

0.99

0.77

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Ajaccio

1.14

Clermont Foot

0.99

allows per match

Ajaccio

0.77

Clermont Foot

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ajaccio+0.00on par

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajaccio ↓

Clermont Foot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ajaccio or draw

72%

Ajaccio or Clermont Foot

70%

Draw or Clermont Foot

58%

Winning margin

Ajaccio wins by 2+

18%

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ajaccio 1+ goals

68%

Ajaccio 2+ goals

32%

Ajaccio 3+ goals

11%

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

59%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

22%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ajaccio (draw refunded)

60%

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajaccio at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.77 · 98 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajaccio attack 1.14 + Clermont Foot defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Clermont Foot attack 0.99 + Ajaccio defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ajaccio scores more

42%

level

30%

Clermont Foot scores more

28%

Ajaccio at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ajaccio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

J. Allevinah

Clermont Foot · M

7.9

Match Events

54'

J. Allevinah

58'

M. Bayo

59'

M. Barreto← M. El Idrissy

67'

F. Mattoir← Q. Lecoeuche

70'

Mohamed Youssouf

74'

J. Tell← J. Dossou

75'

C. Gomis← J. Allevinah

76'

Vital N'Simba

77'

M. Huard← I. Diallo

77'

Y. Magnin← J. Berthomier

78'

G. Courtet← B. Moussiti-Oko

78'

T. N'Jike← Q. Laçi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AjaccioClermont

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots13

2Corners5

10Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots13

4On Target9

3Off Target3

4Blocked1

5Inside Box8

6Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

451Total Passes503

363Accurate Passes413

80%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1