Ajaccio 1–3 Clermont Foot: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Ajaccio

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Clermont Foot

C. Avinel 70'

J. Dossou 90+1'

E. Rashani 89'

G. Kyei 11'

10/2/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 9Stade François Coty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Ajaccio32%

×Draw28%

Clermont Foot40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AjaccioExpected goals in this matchClermont Foot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.23

Ajaccio

1.07

Clermont Foot

1.23

Clermont Foot creates 15% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 45 away

0.58

creates per match

1.07

1.39

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Ajaccio

0.58

Clermont Foot

1.07

allows per match

Ajaccio

1.39

Clermont Foot

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ajaccio+0.00on par

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajaccio ↓

Clermont Foot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ajaccio or draw

60%

Ajaccio or Clermont Foot

72%

Draw or Clermont Foot

68%

Winning margin

Ajaccio wins by 2+

12%

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Ajaccio 1+ goals

66%

Ajaccio 2+ goals

29%

Ajaccio 3+ goals

9%

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

71%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

35%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ajaccio (draw refunded)

45%

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajaccio at home — creates 0.58, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajaccio attack 0.58 + Clermont Foot defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.07

Clermont Foot attack 1.07 + Ajaccio defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ajaccio scores more

32%

level

28%

Clermont Foot scores more

40%

Clermont Foot at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

J. Gastien

Clermont Foot · M

7.7

Match Events

11'

G. Kyei↳ J. Gastien

45'

Johan Gastien

46'

R. Nouri← K. Spadanuda

62'

T. Mangani← V. Marchetti

62'

B. Moussiti-Oko← Y. Touzghar

63'

E. Rashani← G. Kyei

64'

Mickaël Alphonse

70'

C. Avinel

71'

C. Bayala← Y. Cimignani

71'

M. Zeffane← J. Gastien

71'

S. Khaoui← M. Cham

72'

M. Youssouf← M. Alphonse

73'

Mehdi Zeffane

76'

Cyrille Bayala

76'

Maximiliano Caufriez

84'

B. Baiye← M. Gonalons

85'

J. Dossou← K. Andrić

88'

Ismaël Diallo

89'

E. Rashani↳ M. Wieteska

90+1'

J. Dossou↳ S. Khaoui

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AjaccioClermont

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots7

4Corners4

13Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots7

3On Target3

7Off Target1

2Blocked3

5Inside Box6

7Outside Box1

Passing

52%Possession48%

439Total Passes412

346Accurate Passes320

79%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1

Ligue 1: Ajaccio 1–3 Clermont Foot

Clermont Foot beat Ajaccio 3-1 in Ligue 1 on October 2, 2022.

Goals: G. Kyei (11'), C. Avinel (70'), E. Rashani (89'), J. Dossou (90+1').

Ajaccio controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stade François Coty in Ajaccio.

Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot — Ligue 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 1: Ajaccio 1–3 Clermont Foot