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Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio — Ligue 1 2026

Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ajaccio
Ajaccio
G. Kyei 90+3' (pen), 60' (pen)
M. El Idrissy 25'
4/2/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 29Stade Gabriel Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Clermont Foot50%
×Draw24%
Ajaccio26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clermont Foot
1.70
Ajaccio
1.15

Clermont Foot creates 48% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 31 away

creates per match

Clermont Foot
1.00
Ajaccio
0.68

allows per match

Clermont Foot
1.62
Ajaccio
2.39

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par
Ajaccio+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Ajaccio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw
74%
Clermont Foot or Ajaccio
76%
Draw or Ajaccio
50%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+
27%
Ajaccio wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals
82%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
51%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
24%
Ajaccio 1+ goals
68%
Ajaccio 2+ goals
32%
Ajaccio 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
66%
Ajaccio (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 45 matches

Ajaccio away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.00 + Ajaccio defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 1.70

Ajaccio attack 0.68 + Clermont Foot defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Clermont Foot scores more
50%
level
24%
Ajaccio scores more
26%

Clermont Foot at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
Neto BorgesClermont FootClermont Foot · D
8.2

Match Events

25'
M. El Idrissy↳ K. Spadanuda
54'
Cheick Konate
58'
Moussa Soumano
58'
M. Cham← S. Khaoui
60'
Clement Vidal
60'
G. KyeiPenalty
64'
M. Caufriez← C. Konaté
64'
Y. Touzghar← M. Soumano
65'
M. Youssouf← Y. Koné
71'
Alidu Seidu
77'
Mohamed Youssouf
80'
A. Maurer← E. Rashani
80'
F. Ogier← A. Seidu
81'
Y. Magnin← M. Gonalons
81'
C. Avinel← K. Spadanuda
82'
T. Mangani← R. Nouri
83'
Benjamin Leroy
90+1'
Mathieu Coutadeur
90+1'
Mickaël Alphonse
90+3'
Ruan Levine← M. El Idrissy
90+3'
G. KyeiPenalty

Possession

67%Clermont

Shots

14Clermont

Pass accuracy

57%Clermont

Statistics

ClermontAjaccio
Overview
67%Possession33%
14Total Shots3
2.20Expected Goals (xG)0.36
5Corners1
15Fouls22
Shots
14Total Shots3
6On Target2
7Off Target1
1Blocked0
9Inside Box2
5Outside Box1
Passing
67%Possession33%
566Total Passes283
482Accurate Passes182
85%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls22
2Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio

Clermont Foot beat Ajaccio 2-1 in Ligue 1 on April 2, 2023.

Goals: M. El Idrissy (25'), G. Kyei (60' pen, 90+3' pen).

Clermont Foot controlled possession (67%) and registered 14 shots to 3.

The match was played at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Clermont-Ferrand.