Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot — Ligue 2 2018

Ajaccio
Ajaccio
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
T. Strata 64'
J. Anziani 48'
11/8/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 13Stade Michel-Moretti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Ajaccio42%
×Draw30%
Clermont Foot28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajaccio
1.15
Clermont Foot
0.88

Ajaccio creates 31% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 98 away

creates per match

Ajaccio
1.14
Clermont Foot
0.99

allows per match

Ajaccio
0.77
Clermont Foot
1.16

finishing

Ajaccio+0.00on par
Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajaccio ↓

Clermont Foot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ajaccio or draw
72%
Ajaccio or Clermont Foot
70%
Draw or Clermont Foot
58%

Winning margin

Ajaccio wins by 2+
18%
Clermont Foot wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ajaccio 1+ goals
68%
Ajaccio 2+ goals
32%
Ajaccio 3+ goals
11%
Clermont Foot 1+ goals
59%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
22%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ajaccio (draw refunded)
60%
Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajaccio at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.77 · 98 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajaccio attack 1.14 + Clermont Foot defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Clermont Foot attack 0.99 + Ajaccio defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ajaccio scores more
42%
level
30%
Clermont Foot scores more
28%

Ajaccio at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ajaccio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
B. TouréAjaccioAjaccio · M
7.9

Match Events

27'
J. Anziani← M. Barreto
37'
Jérémy Jacquet
38'
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro
47'
Damien Da Silva
48'
J. Anziani
62'
T. Strata← M. Soumano
64'
T. Strata↳ C. Ibayi
69'
Y. Armougom← B. Diallo
69'
Y. Magnin← H. Keïta
70'
M. Baaloudj← M. Bassouamina
72'
Ben Touré
77'
C. Vidal← A. Bamba
78'
Y. Touzghar← C. Ibayi
82'
O. Diop← M. Douane
90+1'
Everson Junior
90'
A. Ackra← H. Saivet

Possession

46%Ajaccio

Shots

18Ajaccio

Pass accuracy

48%Ajaccio

Statistics

AjaccioClermont
Overview
46%Possession54%
18Total Shots12
3Corners4
16Fouls13
Shots
18Total Shots12
8On Target4
8Off Target4
2Blocked4
12Inside Box7
6Outside Box5
Passing
46%Possession54%
304Total Passes357
199Accurate Passes249
65%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
16Fouls13
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Ligue 2: Ajaccio 2–0 Clermont Foot

Ajaccio beat Clermont Foot 2-0 in Ligue 2 on November 8, 2024.

Goals: J. Anziani (48'), T. Strata (64').

Clermont Foot controlled possession (54%) and registered 12 shots to 18.

The match was played at Stade Michel-Moretti in Ajaccio.