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Chico vs Bucaramanga — Primera A 2018

Chico
Chico
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bucaramanga
Bucaramanga
J. Molina 24'
1/24/2025Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 1Estadio La Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Chico40%
×Draw31%
Bucaramanga30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chico
1.10
Bucaramanga
0.91

Chico creates 21% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Chico
1.02
Bucaramanga
0.89

allows per match

Chico
0.92
Bucaramanga
1.19

finishing

Chico+0.78scores more
Bucaramanga-0.25scores less

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chico ↓

Bucaramanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Chico or draw
70%
Chico or Bucaramanga
69%
Draw or Bucaramanga
60%

Winning margin

Chico wins by 2+
16%
Bucaramanga wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chico 1+ goals
67%
Chico 2+ goals
30%
Chico 3+ goals
10%
Bucaramanga 1+ goals
60%
Bucaramanga 2+ goals
23%
Bucaramanga 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chico (draw refunded)
57%
Bucaramanga (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chico at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.92 · 10 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.19 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chico attack 1.02 + Bucaramanga defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.10

Bucaramanga attack 0.89 + Chico defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chico scores more
40%
level
31%
Bucaramanga scores more
30%

Chico at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
F. LozanoChicoChico · D
7.9

Match Events

-5'
Rogerio Caicedo
24'
J. Molina
43'
Yael López
46'
F. Castaneda← A. Penaranda
51'
Yael López
51'
Yael López
54'
Fredy Hinestroza
55'
Darío Denis
57'
D. A. Ramirez Raigosa← J. Pimentel
61'
A. Ponce← K. Londono
74'
D. Chavez← A. Zarate
82'
J. Negrete← R. Valencia
86'
A. Andrade← F. Hinestroza
89'
Kevin Riascos
90+1'
A. Aedo←
90+1'
S. Colon← J. Molina

Possession

37%Chico

Shots

9Chico

Pass accuracy

48%Chico

Statistics

ChicoBucaramanga
Overview
37%Possession63%
9Total Shots23
3Corners15
9Fouls7
Shots
9Total Shots23
5On Target6
4Off Target9
0Blocked8
8Inside Box14
1Outside Box9
Passing
37%Possession63%
242Total Passes392
184Accurate Passes329
76%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls7
4Yellow Cards1
2Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Primera A: Chico 1–0 Bucaramanga

Chico beat Bucaramanga 1-0 in Primera A on January 24, 2025.

Goals: J. Molina (24').

Bucaramanga controlled possession (63%) and registered 23 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio La Independencia in Tunja.