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Bucaramanga vs Chico — Primera A 2018

Bucaramanga
Bucaramanga
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Chico
Chico
B. Caicedo 90', 83'
J. Palma 90' (OG)
F. Sambueza 43', 18'
4/12/2026Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 16Estadio Américo Montanini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Bucaramanga57%
×Draw25%
Chico17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bucaramanga
1.58
Chico
0.74

Bucaramanga creates 114% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bucaramanga
1.29
Chico
0.76

allows per match

Bucaramanga
0.72
Chico
1.87

finishing

Bucaramanga+0.21scores more
Chico-0.53scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Chico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw
83%
Bucaramanga or Chico
75%
Draw or Chico
43%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+
31%
Chico wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals
79%
Bucaramanga 2+ goals
47%
Bucaramanga 3+ goals
21%
Chico 1+ goals
52%
Chico 2+ goals
17%
Chico 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)
77%
Chico (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 12 matches

Chico away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.87 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.29 + Chico defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.58

Chico attack 0.76 + Bucaramanga defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bucaramanga scores more
57%
level
25%
Chico scores more
17%

Bucaramanga at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
F. SambuezaBucaramangaBucaramanga · M
10.0

Match Events

3'
Luciano Pons
18'
F. Sambueza
30'
Fredy Hinestroza
43'
F. Sambueza↳ K. Londono
45+3'
Italo Montaño Cortes
46'
L. Flores← F. Charrupi
46'
S. Mera← I. Montano
53'
Aldair Zárate
56'
Juan Diaz
62'
I. Alba← A. Gutierrez
62'
G. Charrupi← A. Zarate
63'
N. Valencia← S. Salazar
63'
O. Caicedo← D. A. Ramirez Raigosa
66'
Juan Quiceno
71'
B. Caicedo← L. Pons
74'
d. J. Diaz Montes J.← Y. Cabrera
78'
Jairo MolinaPenalty cancelled
82'
J. Salazar← F. Sambueza
83'
B. Caicedo↳ E. Batalla
85'
A. Aedo← D. Ruiz
90+3'
Anyelo Saldaña Marín
90'
B. Caicedo↳ J. Salazar
90'
J. PalmaOwn goal

Possession

52%Bucaramanga

Shots

15Bucaramanga

Pass accuracy

54%Bucaramanga

Statistics

BucaramangaChico
Overview
52%Possession48%
15Total Shots7
1.16Expected Goals (xG)0.82
3Corners6
14Fouls9
Shots
15Total Shots7
6On Target0
9Off Target5
0Blocked2
8Inside Box4
7Outside Box3
Passing
52%Possession48%
328Total Passes305
259Accurate Passes202
79%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
-3.80Goals Prevented-3.80
Discipline
14Fouls9
3Yellow Cards4
7Offsides2

Match Recap: Bucaramanga vs Chico

Bucaramanga beat Chico 5-0 in Primera A on April 12, 2026.

Goals: F. Sambueza (18', 43'), B. Caicedo (83', 90'), J. Palma (90' o.g.).

Bucaramanga controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Américo Montanini in Bucaramanga.