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Bucaramanga vs Chico — Primera A 2018

Bucaramanga
Bucaramanga
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Chico
Chico
L. Pons 39' (pen)
F. Salas 14'
7/12/2025Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 1Estadio Américo Montanini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Bucaramanga57%
×Draw25%
Chico17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bucaramanga
1.58
Chico
0.74

Bucaramanga creates 114% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bucaramanga
1.29
Chico
0.76

allows per match

Bucaramanga
0.72
Chico
1.87

finishing

Bucaramanga+0.21scores more
Chico-0.53scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Chico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw
83%
Bucaramanga or Chico
75%
Draw or Chico
43%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+
31%
Chico wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals
79%
Bucaramanga 2+ goals
47%
Bucaramanga 3+ goals
21%
Chico 1+ goals
52%
Chico 2+ goals
17%
Chico 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)
77%
Chico (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 12 matches

Chico away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.87 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.29 + Chico defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.58

Chico attack 0.76 + Bucaramanga defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bucaramanga scores more
57%
level
25%
Chico scores more
17%

Bucaramanga at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
L. PonsBucaramangaBucaramanga · F
7.7

Match Events

14'
F. Salas↳ J. Molina
27'
Leonardo Flores
29'
D. A. Ramirez Raigosa← K. Londono
39'
L. PonsPenalty
46'
M. Gomez← L. C. Segura Garcia
46'
B. Palacios← J. Quiceno
50'
Brayam Palacios
65'
Carlos Henao
72'
F. Charrupi← L. Flores
73'
Y. Lopez← J. Ampudia
74'
J. Mosquera← F. A. Gil Mosquera
79'
V. Hernandez← J. Molina
83'
A. Dieppa←
87'
A. Gutierrez← B. Duarte
90+4'
Frank Salas

Possession

68%Bucaramanga

Shots

15Bucaramanga

Pass accuracy

56%Bucaramanga

Statistics

BucaramangaChico
Overview
68%Possession32%
15Total Shots5
2.26Expected Goals (xG)0.27
6Corners4
18Fouls16
Shots
15Total Shots5
5On Target1
6Off Target1
4Blocked3
11Inside Box1
4Outside Box4
Passing
68%Possession32%
485Total Passes235
413Accurate Passes154
85%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
18Fouls16
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Bucaramanga vs Chico

Bucaramanga and Chico drew 1-1 in Primera A on July 12, 2025.

Goals: F. Salas (14'), L. Pons (39' pen).

Bucaramanga controlled possession (68%) and registered 15 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Américo Montanini in Bucaramanga.