Chico 1–1 Bucaramanga: Result & Stats | Primera A

Chico

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bucaramanga

J. Pérez 90+5' (pen)

W. Cruz 16' (OG)

11/6/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 17Estadio de La Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Chico40%

×Draw31%

Bucaramanga30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChicoExpected goals in this matchBucaramanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.91

Chico

1.10

Bucaramanga

0.91

Chico creates 21% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.02

creates per match

0.89

0.92

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Chico

1.02

Bucaramanga

0.89

allows per match

Chico

0.92

Bucaramanga

1.19

+0.78scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Chico+0.78scores more

Bucaramanga-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chico ↓

Bucaramanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Chico or draw

70%

Chico or Bucaramanga

69%

Draw or Bucaramanga

60%

Winning margin

Chico wins by 2+

16%

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chico 1+ goals

67%

Chico 2+ goals

30%

Chico 3+ goals

10%

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

60%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

23%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Chico (draw refunded)

57%

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chico at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.92 · 10 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.19 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chico attack 1.02 + Bucaramanga defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.10

Bucaramanga attack 0.89 + Chico defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chico scores more

40%

level

31%

Bucaramanga scores more

30%

Chico at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

70

F. Castañeda

Bucaramanga · F

7.9

Match Events

16'

W. CruzOwn goal

28'

Juan David PérezPenalty confirmed

42'

46'

46'

46'

46'

E. Mena← A. Peñaranda

49'

John Sánchez

61'

F. Sambueza← F. Castañeda

62'

J. Mosquera← F. Hinestroza

70'

D. Sánchez← J. Herrera

74'

77'

82'

86'

90+10'

90+4'

90+10'

Andrés PonceGoal cancelled

90+12'

A. Aedo← M. Gómez

90+5'

J. PérezPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChicoBucaramanga

Overview

60%Possession40%

15Total Shots12

8Corners3

14Fouls17

Shots

15Total Shots12

4On Target1

8Off Target6

3Blocked5

7Inside Box6

8Outside Box6

Passing

60%Possession40%

384Total Passes265

320Accurate Passes203

83%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls17

3Yellow Cards4

3Offsides7

Primera A: Chico 1–1 Bucaramanga

Chico and Bucaramanga drew 1-1 in Primera A on November 6, 2024.

Goals: W. Cruz (16' o.g.), J. Pérez (90+5' pen).

Chico controlled possession (60%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio de La Independencia in Tunja.

Chico vs Bucaramanga — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Chico 1–1 Bucaramanga