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Bucaramanga vs Chico — Copa Colombia 2026

Bucaramanga
Bucaramanga
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Chico
Chico
F. Castaneda 88'
L. Pons 36'
E. Peralta 6' (OG)
J. Molina 77', 15' (pen)
6/10/2025Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 1st Round - 4Estadio Américo Montanini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Bucaramanga59%
×Draw23%
Chico18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bucaramanga
1.81
Chico
0.89

Bucaramanga creates 103% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 12 away

creates per match

Bucaramanga
2.05
Chico
0.83

allows per match

Bucaramanga
0.95
Chico
1.58

finishing

Bucaramanga+0.00on par
Chico+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Chico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw
82%
Bucaramanga or Chico
77%
Draw or Chico
41%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+
34%
Chico wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals
84%
Bucaramanga 2+ goals
54%
Bucaramanga 3+ goals
27%
Chico 1+ goals
59%
Chico 2+ goals
22%
Chico 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)
76%
Chico (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Chico away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 2.05 + Chico defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.81

Chico attack 0.83 + Bucaramanga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bucaramanga scores more
59%
level
23%
Chico scores more
18%

Bucaramanga at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
E. PeraltaOwn goal
15'
J. MolinaPenalty
36'
L. Pons
77'
J. Molina
88'
F. Castaneda
Bucaramanga
Chico
Leonel Alvarez
Manager: Leonel Alvarez
Jhon Gomez
Manager: Jhon Gomez

Copa Colombia: Bucaramanga 3–2 Chico

Bucaramanga beat Chico 3-2 in Copa Colombia on June 10, 2025.

Goals: E. Peralta (6' o.g.), J. Molina (15' pen, 77'), L. Pons (36'), F. Castaneda (88').

The match was played at Estadio Américo Montanini in Bucaramanga.