Viking 1–0 Molde: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Viking

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Molde

P. Pedersen 9'

9/17/2016

Eliteserien · Round 24SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Viking49%

×Draw24%

Molde27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VikingExpected goals in this matchMolde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.22

Viking

1.73

Molde

1.22

Viking creates 42% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 27 away

2.17

creates per match

1.34

1.09

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Viking

2.17

Molde

1.34

allows per match

Viking

1.09

Molde

1.30

+0.83scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Viking+0.83scores more

Molde+0.03on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Molde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Viking or draw

73%

Viking or Molde

76%

Draw or Molde

51%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+

27%

Molde wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals

82%

Viking 2+ goals

52%

Viking 3+ goals

25%

Molde 1+ goals

70%

Molde 2+ goals

34%

Molde 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)

65%

Molde (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.09 · 18 matches

Molde away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 2.17 + Molde defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.73

Molde attack 1.34 + Viking defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Viking scores more

49%

level

24%

Molde scores more

27%

Viking at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

I. Austbø

Viking · G

7.8

Match Events

9'

P. Pedersen↳ C. Dawson

33'

48'

59'

60'

67'

S. Svendsen← P. Strand

74'

U. Sale← T. Aasheim

76'

H. Singh← E. Hestad

79'

M. Bringaker← P. Pedersen

89'

Claes Kronberg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VikingMolde

Overview

48%Possession52%

11Total Shots17

2Corners6

13Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots17

5On Target6

4Off Target7

2Blocked4

7Inside Box11

4Outside Box6

Passing

48%Possession52%

409Total Passes427

316Accurate Passes345

77%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides6

Eliteserien: Viking 1–0 Molde

Viking beat Molde 1-0 in Eliteserien on September 17, 2016.

Goals: P. Pedersen (9').

Molde controlled possession (52%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at SR-Bank Arena in Stavanger.

Viking vs Molde — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Viking 1–0 Molde