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CF Pachuca vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2018

CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Necaxa
Necaxa
B. González 13'
F. Arce 20'
9/30/2023Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 10Estadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 140+ matches

CF Pachuca50%
×Draw24%
Necaxa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Pachuca
1.69
Necaxa
1.15

CF Pachuca creates 47% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 140 away

creates per match

CF Pachuca
1.67
Necaxa
1.26

allows per match

CF Pachuca
1.04
Necaxa
1.70

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw
74%
CF Pachuca or Necaxa
76%
Draw or Necaxa
50%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+
27%
Necaxa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals
82%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
50%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
24%
Necaxa 1+ goals
68%
Necaxa 2+ goals
32%
Necaxa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
66%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 150 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.70 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.67 + Necaxa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.69

Necaxa attack 1.26 + CF Pachuca defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CF Pachuca scores more
50%
level
24%
Necaxa scores more
26%

CF Pachuca at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
É. SánchezCF PachucaCF Pachuca · M
7.9

Match Events

13'
B. González
20'
F. Arce↳ H. Jurado
27'
Facundo Batista
52'
Byron Castillo
54'
Jorge Rodríguez
55'
I. Hernández← J. López
61'
Bryan Garnica
66'
R. Cortéz← H. Jurado
66'
V. Poggi← A. Andrade
68'
Bryan González
71'
Jair Cortes
73'
L. Di Yorio← R. de la Rosa
73'
O. Idrissi← B. González
75'
Rogelio Cortéz Pineda
78'
Lucas Di Yorio
80'
Édgar Méndez← R. Monreal
80'
C. González← B. Garnica
81'
Gustavo Cabral
84'
Byron Castillo
84'
Byron Castillo
87'
R. López← M. Hinestroza
90+3'
B. Samudio← F. Batista

Possession

74%CF

Shots

20CF

Pass accuracy

59%CF

Statistics

CFNecaxa
Overview
74%Possession26%
20Total Shots11
6Corners4
10Fouls15
Shots
20Total Shots11
7On Target5
8Off Target5
5Blocked1
11Inside Box7
9Outside Box4
Passing
74%Possession26%
537Total Passes181
461Accurate Passes109
86%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
4Saves6
Discipline
10Fouls15
5Yellow Cards5
1Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Liga MX: CF Pachuca 1–1 Necaxa

CF Pachuca and Necaxa drew 1-1 in Liga MX on September 30, 2023.

Goals: B. González (13'), F. Arce (20').

CF Pachuca controlled possession (74%) and registered 20 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Hidalgo in Pachuca de Soto.