CF Pachuca 2–1 Necaxa: Result & Stats | Liga MX

CF Pachuca

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Necaxa

1/30/2023

Liga MX · Clausura - 4Estadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 140+ matches

CF Pachuca50%

×Draw24%

Necaxa26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF PachucaExpected goals in this matchNecaxa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.15

CF Pachuca

1.69

Necaxa

1.15

CF Pachuca creates 47% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 140 away

1.67

creates per match

1.26

1.04

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

CF Pachuca

1.67

Necaxa

1.26

allows per match

CF Pachuca

1.04

Necaxa

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Necaxa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw

74%

CF Pachuca or Necaxa

76%

Draw or Necaxa

50%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

27%

Necaxa wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

82%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

50%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

24%

Necaxa 1+ goals

68%

Necaxa 2+ goals

32%

Necaxa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

66%

Necaxa (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 150 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.70 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.67 + Necaxa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.69

Necaxa attack 1.26 + CF Pachuca defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CF Pachuca scores more

50%

level

24%

Necaxa scores more

26%

CF Pachuca at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff