CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas

CF Pachuca

Preview

23:00

Guadalajara Chivas

8/29/2026

Liga MX · Apertura - 6Estadio Miguel Hidalgo

Big match

42%

CF Pachuca

model favours

42%26%32%

CF Pachuca score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

50%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

CF Pachuca42%

×Draw26%

Guadalajara Chivas32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF PachucaExpected goals in this matchGuadalajara Chivas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.23

CF Pachuca

1.46

Guadalajara Chivas

1.23

CF Pachuca creates 19% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 22 away

1.56

creates per match

1.41

1.06

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

CF Pachuca

1.56

Guadalajara Chivas

1.41

allows per match

CF Pachuca

1.06

Guadalajara Chivas

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw

68%

CF Pachuca or Guadalajara Chivas

74%

Draw or Guadalajara Chivas

58%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

20%

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

77%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

43%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

18%

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

71%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

35%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

57%

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.06 · 36 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.56 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.46

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.41 + CF Pachuca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CF Pachuca scores more

42%

level

26%

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

32%

CF Pachuca at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Guadalajara Chivas have won 5 of the last 5 meetings
Top-of-the-table clash — CF Pachuca 4 vs Guadalajara Chivas 2
Guadalajara Chivas win just 36% against the top half (vs 72% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Pachuca

WLWWW

Chivas

DLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff