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CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas — Liga MX 2018

CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas
1/19/2020Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 2Estadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

CF Pachuca45%
×Draw26%
Guadalajara Chivas29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Pachuca
1.45
Guadalajara Chivas
1.11

CF Pachuca creates 31% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 146 away

creates per match

CF Pachuca
1.67
Guadalajara Chivas
1.18

allows per match

CF Pachuca
1.04
Guadalajara Chivas
1.23

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par
Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw
71%
CF Pachuca or Guadalajara Chivas
74%
Draw or Guadalajara Chivas
55%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+
22%
Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals
77%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
42%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
18%
Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals
67%
Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals
30%
Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
61%
Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 150 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.67 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.45

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.18 + CF Pachuca defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CF Pachuca scores more
45%
level
26%
Guadalajara Chivas scores more
29%

CF Pachuca at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas

CF Pachuca and Guadalajara Chivas drew 0-0 in Liga MX on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Hidalgo in Pachuca de Soto.