Cesena 3–1 Catanzaro: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cesena

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Catanzaro

T. Berti 90'

M. Piacentini 72'

A. Cerri 59'

M. Liberali 34'

3/21/2026

Serie B · Round 32Stadio Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Cesena43%

×Draw25%

Catanzaro32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CesenaExpected goals in this matchCatanzaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.33

Cesena

1.58

Catanzaro

1.33

Cesena creates 19% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

1.69

creates per match

1.37

1.30

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Cesena

1.69

Catanzaro

1.37

allows per match

Cesena

1.30

Catanzaro

1.47

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Cesena-0.33scores less

Catanzaro+0.06on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Catanzaro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Cesena or draw

68%

Cesena or Catanzaro

75%

Draw or Catanzaro

57%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+

22%

Catanzaro wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals

79%

Cesena 2+ goals

47%

Cesena 3+ goals

21%

Catanzaro 1+ goals

74%

Catanzaro 2+ goals

38%

Catanzaro 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)

57%

Catanzaro (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.30 · 11 matches

Catanzaro away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.69 + Catanzaro defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.58

Catanzaro attack 1.37 + Cesena defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cesena scores more

43%

level

25%

Catanzaro scores more

32%

Cesena at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

A. Cerri

Cesena · F

8.5

Match Events

34'

M. Liberali↳ T. Cassandro

56'

A. Cerri← G. Vrioni

57'

M. Olivieri← R. Ciervo

59'

A. Cerri↳ M. Olivieri

65'

F. Di Francesco← G. Alesi

65'

M. Pompetti← J. Petriccione

70'

Tommaso Corazza

72'

M. Piacentini↳ T. Berti

76'

M. Francesconi← S. Bastoni

77'

R. Frosinini← N. Brighenti

77'

P. Nuamah← F. Pittarello

78'

Alberto Cerri

82'

Giovanni Zaro

83'

N. Koffi← M. Liberali

87'

Marco Olivieri

87'

Patrick Amiamo Nuamah

89'

Alberto CerriGoal cancelled

90+6'

Pietro Iemmello

90+3'

M. Guidi← C. Shpendi

90'

T. Berti↳ A. Cerri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CesenaCatanzaro

Overview

50%Possession50%

18Total Shots16

1.99Expected Goals (xG)1.62

7Corners5

15Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots16

6On Target3

7Off Target10

5Blocked3

11Inside Box13

7Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

441Total Passes433

384Accurate Passes388

87%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

-0.73Goals Prevented-0.73

Discipline

15Fouls12

4Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1

Serie B: Cesena 3–1 Catanzaro

Cesena beat Catanzaro 3-1 in Serie B on March 21, 2026.

Goals: M. Liberali (34'), A. Cerri (59'), M. Piacentini (72'), T. Berti (90').

Cesena controlled possession (50%) and registered 18 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stadio Dino Manuzzi in Cesena.

Cesena vs Catanzaro — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Cesena 3–1 Catanzaro