Catanzaro 1–0 Cesena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Catanzaro

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cesena

P. Iemmello 54'

5/17/2025

Serie B · Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying RoundStadio Nicola Ceravolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Catanzaro44%

×Draw26%

Cesena29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CatanzaroExpected goals in this matchCesena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.13

Catanzaro

1.45

Cesena

1.13

Catanzaro creates 28% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

1.59

creates per match

1.11

1.15

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Catanzaro

1.59

Cesena

1.11

allows per match

Catanzaro

1.15

Cesena

1.31

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

-0.78scores less than expected

finishing

Catanzaro+0.49scores more

Cesena-0.78scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Catanzaro ↓

Cesena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Catanzaro or draw

71%

Catanzaro or Cesena

74%

Draw or Cesena

56%

Winning margin

Catanzaro wins by 2+

22%

Cesena wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Catanzaro 1+ goals

77%

Catanzaro 2+ goals

42%

Catanzaro 3+ goals

18%

Cesena 1+ goals

68%

Cesena 2+ goals

31%

Cesena 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Catanzaro (draw refunded)

60%

Cesena (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Catanzaro at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.15 · 12 matches

Cesena away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Catanzaro attack 1.59 + Cesena defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.45

Cesena attack 1.11 + Catanzaro defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Catanzaro scores more

44%

level

26%

Cesena scores more

29%

Catanzaro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Catanzaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

M. Pigliacelli

Catanzaro · G

7.9

Match Events

44'

Federico Bonini

48'

Simone BastoniPenalty confirmed

50'

Cristian ShpendiMissed penalty

54'

P. Iemmello↳ S. Pontisso

55'

Pietro Iemmello

59'

F. Russo← C. Shpendi

59'

A. La Gumina← S. Bastoni

65'

R. Ilie← J. Petriccione

66'

F. Pittarello← T. Biasci

66'

J. Ceesay← R. Celia

66'

E. Tavşan← M. Antonucci

74'

M. Coulibaly← S. Pontisso

80'

85'

90+1'

90+5'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CatanzaroCesena

Overview

44%Possession56%

7Total Shots16

2Corners6

9Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots16

1On Target3

4Off Target7

2Blocked6

4Inside Box7

3Outside Box9

Passing

44%Possession56%

387Total Passes476

320Accurate Passes416

83%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls17

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2