Cesena 2–0 Catanzaro: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cesena

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Catanzaro

E. Adamo 47'

A. Kargbo 18'

8/28/2024

Serie B · Round 3Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Cesena41%

×Draw25%

Catanzaro34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CesenaExpected goals in this matchCatanzaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.31

Cesena

1.48

Catanzaro

1.31

Cesena creates 13% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

1.53

creates per match

1.35

1.27

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Cesena

1.53

Catanzaro

1.35

allows per match

Cesena

1.27

Catanzaro

1.43

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Cesena-0.42scores less

Catanzaro+0.11scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Catanzaro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cesena or draw

66%

Cesena or Catanzaro

75%

Draw or Catanzaro

59%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+

20%

Catanzaro wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals

77%

Cesena 2+ goals

43%

Cesena 3+ goals

19%

Catanzaro 1+ goals

73%

Catanzaro 2+ goals

38%

Catanzaro 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)

55%

Catanzaro (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.27 · 9 matches

Catanzaro away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.43 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.53 + Catanzaro defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.48

Catanzaro attack 1.35 + Cesena defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cesena scores more

41%

level

25%

Catanzaro scores more

34%

Cesena at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Kargbo

Cesena · F

8.2

Match Events

18'

45+1'

45+1'

47'

50'

55'

R. Turicchia← T. Cassandro

55'

G. Volpe← R. Pagano

55'

S. Pontisso← J. Petriccione

59'

Massimiliano Mangraviti

60'

D. Seck← A. Ceresoli

67'

M. Francesconi← G. Calò

67'

M. Antonucci← A. Kargbo

69'

Marco Curto

74'

T. Biasci← F. Pittarello

78'

Pietro Iemmello

83'

Demba Seck

90+3'

Federico BoniniGoal cancelled

90+6'

R. Celia← D. Donnarumma

90+3'

J. Ceesay← E. Adamo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CesenaCatanzaro

Overview

35%Possession65%

13Total Shots15

3Corners2

19Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots15

7On Target2

5Off Target8

1Blocked5

7Inside Box8

6Outside Box7

Passing

35%Possession65%

308Total Passes598

244Accurate Passes539

79%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

19Fouls11

4Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1

Serie B: Cesena 2–0 Catanzaro

Cesena beat Catanzaro 2-0 in Serie B on August 28, 2024.

Goals: A. Kargbo (18'), E. Adamo (47').

Catanzaro controlled possession (65%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi in Cesena.

Cesena vs Catanzaro — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Cesena 2–0 Catanzaro