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Catanzaro vs Cesena — Serie B 2018

Catanzaro
Catanzaro
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cesena
Cesena
F. Pittarello 53'
P. Iemmello 26'
12/27/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 18Stadio Nicola Ceravolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Catanzaro44%
×Draw26%
Cesena29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Catanzaro
1.45
Cesena
1.13

Catanzaro creates 28% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Catanzaro
1.59
Cesena
1.11

allows per match

Catanzaro
1.15
Cesena
1.31

finishing

Catanzaro+0.49scores more
Cesena-0.78scores less

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Catanzaro ↓

Cesena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Catanzaro or draw
71%
Catanzaro or Cesena
74%
Draw or Cesena
56%

Winning margin

Catanzaro wins by 2+
22%
Cesena wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Catanzaro 1+ goals
77%
Catanzaro 2+ goals
42%
Catanzaro 3+ goals
18%
Cesena 1+ goals
68%
Cesena 2+ goals
31%
Cesena 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Catanzaro (draw refunded)
60%
Cesena (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Catanzaro at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.15 · 12 matches

Cesena away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Catanzaro attack 1.59 + Cesena defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.45

Cesena attack 1.11 + Catanzaro defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Catanzaro scores more
44%
level
26%
Cesena scores more
29%

Catanzaro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Catanzaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
F. PittarelloCatanzaroCatanzaro · F
8.9

Match Events

17'
Jacopo Petriccione
26'
P. Iemmello
42'
Giovanni Zaro
52'
Dimitri Bisoli
53'
F. Pittarello↳ P. Iemmello
55'
P. Amoran← G. Zaro
55'
V. Magni← G. Frabotta
55'
J. Blesa← S. Balde
62'
R. Frosinini← M. D'Alessandro
63'
F. Rispoli← J. Petriccione
73'
Tommaso Cassandro
73'
M. Olivieri← D. Bisoli
77'
D. Buglio← S. Pontisso
77'
M. Liberali← A. Cisse
81'
T. Arrigoni← T. Berti
86'
G. Di Chiara←

Possession

43%Catanzaro

Shots

14Catanzaro

Pass accuracy

49%Catanzaro

Statistics

CatanzaroCesena
Overview
43%Possession57%
14Total Shots9
1.79Expected Goals (xG)1.12
2Corners5
7Fouls20
Shots
14Total Shots9
6On Target1
7Off Target5
1Blocked3
10Inside Box7
4Outside Box2
Passing
43%Possession57%
381Total Passes499
318Accurate Passes436
83%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls20
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Serie B: Catanzaro 2–0 Cesena

Catanzaro beat Cesena 2-0 in Serie B on December 27, 2025.

Goals: P. Iemmello (26'), F. Pittarello (53').

Cesena controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo in Catanzaro.