Catanzaro 4–2 Cesena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Catanzaro

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Cesena

T. Cassandro 66'

P. Iemmello 38'

S. Pieraccini 10' (OG)

F. Bonini 3'

M. Antonucci 70'

S. Scognamillo 30' (OG)

2/1/2025

Serie B · Round 24Stadio Nicola Ceravolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Catanzaro45%

×Draw26%

Cesena29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CatanzaroExpected goals in this matchCesena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.11

Catanzaro

1.47

Cesena

1.11

Catanzaro creates 32% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.59

creates per match

1.08

1.15

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Catanzaro

1.59

Cesena

1.08

allows per match

Catanzaro

1.15

Cesena

1.35

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

-0.78scores less than expected

finishing

Catanzaro+0.49scores more

Cesena-0.78scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Catanzaro ↓

Cesena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Catanzaro or draw

71%

Catanzaro or Cesena

74%

Draw or Cesena

55%

Winning margin

Catanzaro wins by 2+

22%

Cesena wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Catanzaro 1+ goals

77%

Catanzaro 2+ goals

43%

Catanzaro 3+ goals

18%

Cesena 1+ goals

67%

Cesena 2+ goals

30%

Cesena 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Catanzaro (draw refunded)

61%

Cesena (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Catanzaro at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.15 · 12 matches

Cesena away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.35 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Catanzaro attack 1.59 + Cesena defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.47

Cesena attack 1.08 + Catanzaro defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Catanzaro scores more

45%

level

26%

Cesena scores more

29%

Catanzaro at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Catanzaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

84

T. Cassandro

Catanzaro · M

7.9

Match Events

3'

F. Bonini↳ S. Pontisso

10'

S. PieracciniOwn goal

30'

S. ScognamilloOwn goal

38'

P. Iemmello↳ N. Brighenti

40'

Antonino La Gumina

54'

Nicolò Brighenti

54'

M. Francesconi← S. Pieraccini

59'

M. Coulibaly← S. Pontisso

59'

F. Pittarello← A. La Mantia

62'

Daniele Donnarumma

66'

T. Cassandro↳ G. Quagliata

69'

M. Antonucci← C. Shpendi

69'

E. Tavşan← S. Bastoni

69'

R. Celia← D. Donnarumma

70'

M. Antonucci

76'

D. Šarić← L. Mendicino

82'

T. Biasci← P. Iemmello

83'

Mirko Pigliacelli

83'

Mirko Antonucci

89'

Matias Antonini← F. Bonini

89'

M. Šitum← G. Quagliata

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CatanzaroCesena

Overview

45%Possession55%

8Total Shots12

1Corners4

15Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots12

6On Target2

1Off Target6

1Blocked4

7Inside Box8

1Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

403Total Passes488

323Accurate Passes404

80%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides5

Serie B: Catanzaro 4–2 Cesena

Catanzaro beat Cesena 4-2 in Serie B on February 1, 2025.

Goals: F. Bonini (3'), S. Pieraccini (10' o.g.), S. Scognamillo (30' o.g.), P. Iemmello (38'), T. Cassandro (66'), M. Antonucci (70').

Cesena controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo in Catanzaro.

Catanzaro vs Cesena — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Catanzaro 4–2 Cesena