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Bolton vs Port Vale — League One 2018

Bolton
Bolton
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Port Vale
Port Vale
2/25/2023League OneLeague One · Round 34University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Bolton56%
×Draw24%
Port Vale21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.74
Port Vale
0.96

Bolton creates 81% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 72 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.73
Port Vale
0.82

allows per match

Bolton
1.09
Port Vale
1.75

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
79%
Bolton or Port Vale
76%
Draw or Port Vale
44%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
31%
Port Vale wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
82%
Bolton 2+ goals
52%
Bolton 3+ goals
25%
Port Vale 1+ goals
62%
Port Vale 2+ goals
25%
Port Vale 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
73%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.09 · 139 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.75 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.73 + Port Vale defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.74

Port Vale attack 0.82 + Bolton defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bolton scores more
56%
level
24%
Port Vale scores more
21%

Bolton at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Bolton 2–1 Port Vale

Bolton beat Port Vale 2-1 in League One on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at University of Bolton Stadium in Bolton.