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Bolton vs Port Vale — League Two 2018

Bolton
Bolton
FT
3 – 6
HT: 1 – 3
Port Vale
Port Vale
12/5/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 16University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Bolton38%
×Draw29%
Port Vale33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.17
Port Vale
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 118 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.17
Port Vale
1.16

allows per match

Bolton
1.00
Port Vale
1.17

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
67%
Bolton or Port Vale
71%
Draw or Port Vale
62%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
16%
Port Vale wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
69%
Bolton 2+ goals
33%
Bolton 3+ goals
11%
Port Vale 1+ goals
66%
Port Vale 2+ goals
29%
Port Vale 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
53%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.17 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Bolton defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bolton scores more
38%
level
29%
Port Vale scores more
33%

Bolton at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bolton vs Port Vale

Port Vale beat Bolton 6-3 in League Two on December 5, 2020.

The match was played at University of Bolton Stadium in Bolton.