Blackpool 0–1 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Blackpool

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Blackburn

B. Brereton 16'

8/31/2022

Championship · Round 7Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Blackpool39%

×Draw27%

Blackburn34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.21

Blackpool

1.33

Blackburn

1.21

Blackpool creates 10% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 194 away

1.23

creates per match

1.15

1.27

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Blackpool

1.23

Blackburn

1.15

allows per match

Blackpool

1.27

Blackburn

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par

Blackburn+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

66%

Blackpool or Blackburn

73%

Draw or Blackburn

61%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

18%

Blackburn wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

74%

Blackpool 2+ goals

38%

Blackpool 3+ goals

15%

Blackburn 1+ goals

70%

Blackburn 2+ goals

34%

Blackburn 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

54%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 52 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.43 · 194 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.23 + Blackburn defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Blackburn attack 1.15 + Blackpool defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Blackpool scores more

39%

level

27%

Blackburn scores more

34%

Blackpool at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

K. Dougall

Blackpool · M

8.2

Match Events

16'

B. Brereton↳ B. Dack

24'

Ben Brereton Díaz

63'

Dominic Thompson

64'

J. Vale← T. Dolan

66'

T. Corbeanu← S. Lavery

70'

Lewis Travis

73'

Jack Vale

80'

I. Poveda-Ocampo← G. Madine

80'

T. Edun← B. Dack

84'

Marvin Ekpiteta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolBlackburn

Overview

46%Possession54%

13Total Shots18

7Corners5

9Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots18

1On Target5

8Off Target7

4Blocked6

10Inside Box11

3Outside Box7

Passing

46%Possession54%

340Total Passes428

236Accurate Passes331

69%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2