Blackpool 2–1 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Blackpool

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Blackburn

J. Yates 24'

S. Lavery 4'

B. Brereton 50'

10/2/2021

Championship · Round 11Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Blackpool39%

×Draw27%

Blackburn34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.21

Blackpool

1.33

Blackburn

1.21

Blackpool creates 10% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 194 away

1.23

creates per match

1.15

1.27

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Blackpool

1.23

Blackburn

1.15

allows per match

Blackpool

1.27

Blackburn

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par

Blackburn+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

66%

Blackpool or Blackburn

73%

Draw or Blackburn

61%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

18%

Blackburn wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

74%

Blackpool 2+ goals

38%

Blackpool 3+ goals

15%

Blackburn 1+ goals

70%

Blackburn 2+ goals

34%

Blackburn 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

54%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 52 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.43 · 194 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.23 + Blackburn defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Blackburn attack 1.15 + Blackpool defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Blackpool scores more

39%

level

27%

Blackburn scores more

34%

Blackpool at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Buckley

Blackburn · M

8.0

Match Events

4'

S. Lavery↳ K. Anderson

22'

J. Yates← S. Lavery

24'

J. Yates

25'

Daniel Ayala

43'

A. Edun← S. Gallagher

46'

Marvin Ekpiteta

46'

J. Husband← R. Keogh

50'

B. Brereton↳ J. Buckley

62'

S. Moore← C. Maxwell

81'

R. Khadra← T. Magloire

87'

Ryan Wintle

89'

D. Butterworth← J. Rothwell

90+5'

Josh Bowler

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolBlackburn

Overview

49%Possession51%

8Total Shots16

2Corners9

13Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots16

3On Target6

2Off Target5

3Blocked5

5Inside Box10

3Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

345Total Passes337

230Accurate Passes225

67%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4