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Blackpool vs Blackburn — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Blackpool
Blackpool
FT
1 – 3
Blackburn
Blackburn
M. Virtue-Thick 40'
T. Dolan 88'
B. Brereton 30', 4'
8/25/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Blackpool29%
×Draw22%
Blackburn50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackpool
1.46
Blackburn
1.98

Blackburn creates 36% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

Blackpool
2.00
Blackburn
1.64

allows per match

Blackpool
2.33
Blackburn
0.91

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par
Blackburn+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw
50%
Blackpool or Blackburn
78%
Draw or Blackburn
71%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+
13%
Blackburn wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals
77%
Blackpool 2+ goals
43%
Blackpool 3+ goals
18%
Blackburn 1+ goals
86%
Blackburn 2+ goals
59%
Blackburn 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)
37%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 2.00 + Blackburn defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.46

Blackburn attack 1.64 + Blackpool defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Blackpool scores more
29%
level
22%
Blackburn scores more
50%

Blackburn at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
B. Brereton
30'
B. Brereton
40'
M. Virtue-Thick
46'
L. Travis← C. Evans
46'
M. Nottingham← J. Thorniley
46'
J. Devitt← B. Garrity
46'
L. Holtby← J. Rothwell
59'
H. Chapman← T. Dolan
59'
J. Rankin-Costello← E. Bennett
66'
A. Armstrong← J. Buckley
66'
S. Wharton← J. Davenport
66'
B. Johnson← D. Williams
72'
D. Lenihan← H. Carter
72'
A. Bell← D. Pike
72'
B. Brereton← L. Brennan
75'
M. Virtue-Thick← G. Ward
88'
T. Dolan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Blackpool vs Blackburn

Blackburn beat Blackpool 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 25, 2020.

Goals: B. Brereton (4', 30'), M. Virtue-Thick (40'), T. Dolan (88').

The match was played at Bloomfield Road in Blackpool, Lancashire.