Blackburn 1–0 Blackpool: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Blackpool

T. Dolan 31'

2/21/2023

Championship · Round 29Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Blackburn46%

×Draw27%

Blackpool27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.02

Blackburn

1.43

Blackpool

1.02

Blackburn creates 40% more chances

Season form · 189 home / 52 away

1.34

creates per match

0.92

1.11

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Blackburn

1.34

Blackpool

0.92

allows per match

Blackburn

1.11

Blackpool

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackburn+0.00on par

Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

73%

Blackburn or Blackpool

73%

Draw or Blackpool

54%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

23%

Blackpool wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

76%

Blackburn 2+ goals

42%

Blackburn 3+ goals

17%

Blackpool 1+ goals

64%

Blackpool 2+ goals

27%

Blackpool 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

63%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 189 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.34 + Blackpool defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Blackpool attack 0.92 + Blackburn defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Blackburn scores more

46%

level

27%

Blackpool scores more

27%

Blackburn at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

D. Hyam

Blackburn · D

7.6

Match Events

31'

T. Dolan↳ S. Thomas

36'

S. Lavery← J. Yates

46'

H. Carter← Daniel Ayala

49'

Tyrhys Dolan

61'

J. Bowler← K. Dougall

61'

C. Hamilton← M. Rogers

78'

T. Morton← S. Szmodics

78'

J. Vale← S. Gallagher

80'

Callum Brittain

89'

R. Hedges← T. Dolan

90'

John Buckley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnBlackpool

Overview

61%Possession39%

13Total Shots7

8Corners2

12Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots7

3On Target0

5Off Target4

5Blocked3

6Inside Box6

7Outside Box1

Passing

61%Possession39%

533Total Passes341

425Accurate Passes231

80%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls12

3Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1