Blackburn 1–1 Blackpool: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Blackpool

S. Gallagher 10'

M. Ekpiteta 48'

4/9/2022

Championship · Round 41Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Blackburn46%

×Draw27%

Blackpool27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.02

Blackburn

1.43

Blackpool

1.02

Blackburn creates 40% more chances

Season form · 189 home / 52 away

1.34

creates per match

0.92

1.11

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Blackburn

1.34

Blackpool

0.92

allows per match

Blackburn

1.11

Blackpool

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackburn+0.00on par

Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

73%

Blackburn or Blackpool

73%

Draw or Blackpool

54%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

23%

Blackpool wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

76%

Blackburn 2+ goals

42%

Blackburn 3+ goals

17%

Blackpool 1+ goals

64%

Blackpool 2+ goals

27%

Blackpool 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

63%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 189 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.34 + Blackpool defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Blackpool attack 0.92 + Blackburn defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Blackburn scores more

46%

level

27%

Blackpool scores more

27%

Blackburn at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

M. Ekpiteta

Blackpool · D

7.6

Match Events

10'

S. Gallagher↳ T. Kaminski

44'

Kenneth Dougall

48'

M. Ekpiteta

62'

B. Dack← T. Dolan

62'

J. Buckley← R. Nyambe

63'

Sam Gallagher

71'

K. Anderson← C. Kirk

71'

J. Bowler← C. Hamilton

80'

81'

82'

85'

90+6'

90+2'

90+2'

R. Hedges← S. Gallagher

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnBlackpool

Overview

53%Possession47%

10Total Shots17

7Corners6

15Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots17

2On Target3

5Off Target5

3Blocked9

7Inside Box14

3Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

340Total Passes293

240Accurate Passes182

71%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls10

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides0