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Birmingham vs QPR — Championship 2018

Birmingham
Birmingham
Preview
14:00
QPR
QPR
10/17/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 11
Big match
50%
Birmingham
model favours
50%27%23%

Birmingham have won 5 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Birmingham50%
×Draw27%
QPR23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.45
QPR
0.88

Birmingham creates 65% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 61 away

creates per match

Birmingham
1.62
QPR
0.79

allows per match

Birmingham
0.97
QPR
1.27

finishing

Birmingham-0.07on par
QPR+0.10scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
77%
Birmingham or QPR
73%
Draw or QPR
50%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
25%
QPR wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
77%
Birmingham 2+ goals
42%
Birmingham 3+ goals
18%
QPR 1+ goals
59%
QPR 2+ goals
22%
QPR 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
69%
QPR (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.97 · 33 matches

QPR away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.27 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.62 + QPR defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.45

QPR attack 0.79 + Birmingham defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Birmingham scores more
50%
level
27%
QPR scores more
23%

Birmingham at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Birmingham are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Birmingham have scored in 7 games running

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Birmingham
Balanced
QPR
Balanced
46%Possession48%
69%Pass accuracy75%
11.9Shots11.9
1.27xGBiggest gap1.04
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BirminghamQPR

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Birmingham
2
Draws
4
QPR
Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 40%
1–01–21–20–01–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Birmingham
WWWDW
QPR
WWDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birmingham face QPR (Championship)

Championship returns with Birmingham hosting QPR. Match starts October 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.