Birmingham 2–1 QPR: Result & Stats | Championship

Birmingham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

QPR

A. Halilović 85'

K. Pedersen 82'

C. Austin 44'

2/27/2021

Championship · Round 33St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Birmingham49%

×Draw27%

QPR24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchQPR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.89

Birmingham

1.41

QPR

0.89

Birmingham creates 58% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 61 away

1.55

creates per match

0.79

0.98

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Birmingham

1.55

QPR

0.79

allows per match

Birmingham

0.98

QPR

1.27

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Birmingham-0.09on par

QPR+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

QPR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

76%

Birmingham or QPR

73%

Draw or QPR

51%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

24%

QPR wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

76%

Birmingham 2+ goals

41%

Birmingham 3+ goals

17%

QPR 1+ goals

59%

QPR 2+ goals

22%

QPR 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

67%

QPR (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.98 · 35 matches

QPR away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.27 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.55 + QPR defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.41

QPR attack 0.79 + Birmingham defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Birmingham scores more

49%

level

27%

QPR scores more

24%

Birmingham at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Iván Sánchez

Birmingham · M

7.5

Match Events

13'

44'

51'

56'

56'

63'

A. Halilović← G. Gardner

63'

M. Roberts← J. Clarke-Salter

63'

J. Leko← Jérémie Bela

71'

L. Jutkiewicz← S. Hogan

73'

Macauley Bonne

82'

K. Pedersen↳ M. Roberts

85'

A. Halilović↳ Iván Sánchez

86'

Alen Halilović

87'

C. Kelman← M. Bonne

87'

A. Adomah← S. Johansen

90'

Marc Roberts

90+1'

Y. Valery← Iván Sánchez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamQPR

Overview

55%Possession45%

13Total Shots10

7Corners3

12Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots10

6On Target2

2Off Target5

5Blocked3

6Inside Box8

7Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

393Total Passes333

251Accurate Passes178

64%Pass Accuracy53%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2