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Birmingham vs QPR — Championship 2018

Birmingham
Birmingham
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
QPR
QPR
9/1/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 6St. Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Birmingham49%
×Draw27%
QPR24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.41
QPR
0.89

Birmingham creates 58% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 61 away

creates per match

Birmingham
1.55
QPR
0.79

allows per match

Birmingham
0.98
QPR
1.27

finishing

Birmingham-0.09on par
QPR+0.10scores more

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
76%
Birmingham or QPR
73%
Draw or QPR
51%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
24%
QPR wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
76%
Birmingham 2+ goals
41%
Birmingham 3+ goals
17%
QPR 1+ goals
59%
QPR 2+ goals
22%
QPR 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
67%
QPR (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.98 · 35 matches

QPR away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.27 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.55 + QPR defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.41

QPR attack 0.79 + Birmingham defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Birmingham scores more
49%
level
27%
QPR scores more
24%

Birmingham at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
L. CampBirminghamBirmingham · G
7.9

Match Events

31'
Jacques Maghoma
53'
Kristian Pedersen
59'
W. Harding← M. Colin
68'
V. Solomon-Otabor← Che Adams
85'
M. Smith← N. Wells
86'
O. Bogle← L. Jutkiewicz
89'
G. Cameron← T. Hemed

Possession

40%Birmingham

Shots

5Birmingham

Pass accuracy

44%Birmingham

Statistics

BirminghamQPR
Overview
40%Possession60%
5Total Shots12
5Corners2
22Fouls19
Shots
5Total Shots12
1On Target5
0Off Target5
4Blocked2
3Inside Box8
2Outside Box4
Passing
40%Possession60%
265Total Passes387
143Accurate Passes269
54%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
22Fouls19
2Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Birmingham vs QPR

Birmingham and QPR drew 0-0 in Championship on September 1, 2018.

QPR controlled possession (60%) and registered 12 shots to 5.

The match was played at St. Andrew's Stadium in Birmingham.