Beşiktaş 3–0 Alanyaspor: Result & Stats

Beşiktaş

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alanyaspor

O. Kokcu 85'

Oh Hyeon-Gyu 83'

E. B. Toure 17'

4/23/2026

Türkiye Kupası · Quarter-finalsBesiktas Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Beşiktaş42%

×Draw24%

Alanyaspor34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeşiktaşExpected goals in this matchAlanyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.45

Beşiktaş

1.65

Alanyaspor

1.45

Beşiktaş creates 14% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

2.50

creates per match

2.40

0.50

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Beşiktaş

2.50

Alanyaspor

2.40

allows per match

Beşiktaş

0.50

Alanyaspor

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Alanyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Alanyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw

66%

Beşiktaş or Alanyaspor

76%

Draw or Alanyaspor

58%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

22%

Alanyaspor wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

81%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

49%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

23%

Alanyaspor 1+ goals

77%

Alanyaspor 2+ goals

42%

Alanyaspor 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

56%

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Alanyaspor away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 2.50 + Alanyaspor defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.65

Alanyaspor attack 2.40 + Beşiktaş defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Beşiktaş scores more

42%

level

24%

Alanyaspor scores more

34%

Beşiktaş at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

O. Kokcu

Beşiktaş · M

8.7

Match Events

17'

E. B. Toure↳ Oh Hyeon-Gyu

46'

65'

66'

66'

74'

I. Celik← Maestro

74'

E. Karaca← Hwang Ui-Jo

83'

Oh Hyeon-Gyu↳ J. Olaitan

85'

O. Kokcu↳ M. Rashica

86'

M. Elia← F. Aksoy

89'

Jota Silva← O. Kokcu

89'

S. Ucan← Oh Hyeon-Gyu

89'

M. Hekimoglu← E. B. Toure

90+1'

K. Asllani← J. Olaitan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeşiktaşAlanyaspor

Overview

55%Possession45%

14Total Shots9

5Corners5

11Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots9

5On Target2

6Off Target4

3Blocked3

9Inside Box8

5Outside Box1

Passing

55%Possession45%

519Total Passes420

459Accurate Passes360

88%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls15

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3