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Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş — League #203 2026

Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş
Hwang Ui-Jo 40'
Rafa 71'
5/18/2025League #203League #203 · Round 36GAIN Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Alanyaspor34%
×Draw25%
Beşiktaş40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alanyaspor
1.32
Beşiktaş
1.46

Beşiktaş creates 11% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Alanyaspor
1.17
Beşiktaş
1.38

allows per match

Alanyaspor
1.54
Beşiktaş
1.48

finishing

Alanyaspor+0.03on par
Beşiktaş-0.38scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alanyaspor ↓

Beşiktaş →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Alanyaspor or draw
60%
Alanyaspor or Beşiktaş
75%
Draw or Beşiktaş
66%

Winning margin

Alanyaspor wins by 2+
15%
Beşiktaş wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Alanyaspor 1+ goals
73%
Alanyaspor 2+ goals
38%
Alanyaspor 3+ goals
15%
Beşiktaş 1+ goals
77%
Beşiktaş 2+ goals
43%
Beşiktaş 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)
46%
Beşiktaş (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alanyaspor at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.54 · 5 matches

Beşiktaş away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.48 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alanyaspor attack 1.17 + Beşiktaş defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.32

Beşiktaş attack 1.38 + Alanyaspor defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Alanyaspor scores more
34%
level
25%
Beşiktaş scores more
40%

Beşiktaş at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
E. TaşkıranAlanyasporAlanyaspor · G
8.2

Match Events

40'
Hwang Ui-Jo↳ Y. Özdemir
45+2'
Felix Uduokhai
46'
E. Muçi← M. Hekimoğlu
49'
Ernest Muçi
64'
S. Kılıçsoy← C. Immobile
64'
K. Arroyo← M. Rashica
71'
Rafa↳ E. Muçi
73'
Rafa SilvaGoal confirmed
77'
G. Makouta← Richard
78'
T. Vilhena← Hwang Ui-Jo
86'
E. Keskin← S. Córdova
90+4'
A. Usluoğlu← A. Šporar

Possession

40%Alanyaspor

Shots

11Alanyaspor

Pass accuracy

49%Alanyaspor

Statistics

AlanyasporBeşiktaş
Overview
40%Possession60%
11Total Shots12
0.65Expected Goals (xG)1.55
4Corners2
10Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots12
4On Target6
4Off Target2
3Blocked4
8Inside Box5
3Outside Box7
Passing
40%Possession60%
387Total Passes587
334Accurate Passes526
86%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
6Saves3
-0.52Goals Prevented-0.52
Discipline
10Fouls14
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

League #203: Alanyaspor 1–1 Beşiktaş

Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş drew 1-1 in League #203 on May 18, 2025.

Goals: Hwang Ui-Jo (40'), Rafa (71').

Beşiktaş controlled possession (60%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at GAIN Park Stadium in Antalya.