Beşiktaş 2–2 Alanyaspor: Result & Stats

Beşiktaş

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Alanyaspor

Oh Hyeon-Gyu 54'

O. Kokcu 32' (pen)

G. Yalcin 16', 9'

2/8/2026

League #203 · Round 21Tupras Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Beşiktaş60%

×Draw24%

Alanyaspor16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeşiktaşExpected goals in this matchAlanyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.72

Beşiktaş

1.68

Alanyaspor

0.72

Beşiktaş creates 133% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.67

creates per match

0.74

0.70

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Beşiktaş

1.67

Alanyaspor

0.74

allows per match

Beşiktaş

0.70

Alanyaspor

1.69

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

Beşiktaş-0.50scores less

Alanyaspor+0.40scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Alanyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw

84%

Beşiktaş or Alanyaspor

76%

Draw or Alanyaspor

40%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

34%

Alanyaspor wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

81%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

50%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

24%

Alanyaspor 1+ goals

51%

Alanyaspor 2+ goals

16%

Alanyaspor 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

79%

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.70 · 6 matches

Alanyaspor away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.69 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 1.67 + Alanyaspor defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.68

Alanyaspor attack 0.74 + Beşiktaş defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Beşiktaş scores more

60%

level

24%

Alanyaspor scores more

16%

Beşiktaş at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

G. Yalcin

Alanyaspor · F

8.9

Match Events

-5'

Ertuğrul Taşkıran

1'

Václav Černý

9'

G. Yalcin↳ Hwang Ui-Jo

16'

G. Yalcin↳ U. Akdag

31'

Hyun-gyu OhPenalty confirmed

32'

O. KokcuPenalty

44'

Hyun-gyu Oh

54'

Oh Hyeon-Gyu↳ E. Agbadou

58'

Emmanuel AgbadouGoal confirmed

62'

M. Elia← I. Hagi

62'

S. Mounie← G. Yalcin

74'

E. Karaca← Hwang Ui-Jo

78'

M. Murillo← G. Sazdagi

78'

M. Hekimoglu← V. Cerny

82'

Nuno Lima

83'

F. Aksoy← N. Janvier

83'

E. Keskin← Ruan

85'

88'

88'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeşiktaşAlanyaspor

Overview

69%Possession31%

20Total Shots7

2.50Expected Goals (xG)0.31

3Corners3

13Fouls15

Shots

20Total Shots7

8On Target3

5Off Target3

7Blocked1

10Inside Box4

10Outside Box3

Passing

69%Possession31%

529Total Passes233

461Accurate Passes159

87%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

1.03Goals Prevented1.03

Discipline

13Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

4Offsides1