Alanyaspor 2–0 Beşiktaş: Result & Stats

Alanyaspor

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Beşiktaş

G. Yalcin 76'

I. Kaya 45' (pen)

8/31/2025

League #203 · Round 4GAİN Park Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Alanyaspor44%

×Draw30%

Beşiktaş26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlanyasporExpected goals in this matchBeşiktaş

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.85

Alanyaspor

1.18

Beşiktaş

0.85

Alanyaspor creates 39% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.14

creates per match

1.00

0.71

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Alanyaspor

1.14

Beşiktaş

1.00

allows per match

Alanyaspor

0.71

Beşiktaş

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alanyaspor+0.00on par

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alanyaspor ↓

Beşiktaş →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Alanyaspor or draw

74%

Alanyaspor or Beşiktaş

70%

Draw or Beşiktaş

56%

Winning margin

Alanyaspor wins by 2+

19%

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Alanyaspor 1+ goals

69%

Alanyaspor 2+ goals

33%

Alanyaspor 3+ goals

12%

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

57%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

21%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)

62%

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alanyaspor at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Beşiktaş away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alanyaspor attack 1.14 + Beşiktaş defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.18

Beşiktaş attack 1.00 + Alanyaspor defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alanyaspor scores more

44%

level

30%

Beşiktaş scores more

26%

Alanyaspor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alanyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

E. Taskiran

Alanyaspor · G

8.3

Match Events

29'

E. Keskin← F. Hadergjonaj

36'

Jonas Svensson

45+3'

Tiago Djaló

45'

I. KayaPenalty

58'

E. B. Toure← E. Muci

67'

I. Celik← G. Makouta

68'

G. Yalcin← Hwang Ui-Jo

72'

Felix Uduokhai

75'

D. E. Tiknaz← K. Kayra Yilmaz

75'

Joao Mario← O. Kokcu

76'

G. Yalcin↳ Y. Ozdemir

88'

F. Aksoy← Y. Ozdemir

88'

E. Karaca← U. Ogundu

90+3'

Fatih Aksoy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlanyasporBeşiktaş

Overview

37%Possession63%

9Total Shots15

1.49Expected Goals (xG)2.31

2Corners6

7Fouls18

Shots

9Total Shots15

3On Target4

5Off Target6

1Blocked5

6Inside Box11

3Outside Box4

Passing

37%Possession63%

331Total Passes567

268Accurate Passes497

81%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

-0.32Goals Prevented-0.32

Discipline

7Fouls18

1Yellow Cards3

4Offsides3