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Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor — League #203 2026

Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor
Rafa 7'
Nuno Lima 5'
12/21/2024League #203League #203 · Round 17Tüpraş Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Beşiktaş55%
×Draw26%
Alanyaspor20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beşiktaş
1.53
Alanyaspor
0.80

Beşiktaş creates 91% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Beşiktaş
1.51
Alanyaspor
0.81

allows per match

Beşiktaş
0.78
Alanyaspor
1.55

finishing

Beşiktaş-0.51scores less
Alanyaspor+0.19scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Alanyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw
80%
Beşiktaş or Alanyaspor
74%
Draw or Alanyaspor
45%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+
28%
Alanyaspor wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals
78%
Beşiktaş 2+ goals
45%
Beşiktaş 3+ goals
20%
Alanyaspor 1+ goals
55%
Alanyaspor 2+ goals
19%
Alanyaspor 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)
74%
Alanyaspor (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.78 · 5 matches

Alanyaspor away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.55 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 1.51 + Alanyaspor defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.53

Alanyaspor attack 0.81 + Beşiktaş defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Beşiktaş scores more
55%
level
26%
Alanyaspor scores more
20%

Beşiktaş at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
Nuno LimaAlanyasporAlanyaspor · D
7.9

Match Events

5'
Nuno Lima↳ N. Janvier
7'
Rafa
31'
Yusuf ÖzdemirGoal cancelled
46'
C. Ndour← S. Uçan
56'
Richard← F. Aksoy
68'
Nuno Lima
70'
A. Oxlade-Chamberlain← E. Muçi
70'
A. Masuaku← B. Zaynutdinov
74'
Hwang Ui-Jo← E. Karaca
86'
Rony Lopes← Loide Augusto
86'
B. Bulut← N. Janvier
88'
Yusuf Özdemir
88'
M. Hekimoğlu← Al Musrati
90+3'
Mustafa Hekimoglu

Possession

56%Beşiktaş

Shots

12Beşiktaş

Pass accuracy

51%Beşiktaş

Statistics

BeşiktaşAlanyaspor
Overview
56%Possession44%
12Total Shots9
1.36Expected Goals (xG)0.60
6Corners7
16Fouls16
Shots
12Total Shots9
5On Target1
2Off Target4
5Blocked4
8Inside Box5
4Outside Box4
Passing
56%Possession44%
459Total Passes353
352Accurate Passes264
77%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
0.03Goals Prevented0.03
Discipline
16Fouls16
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides4

Match Recap: Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor

Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor drew 1-1 in League #203 on December 21, 2024.

Goals: Nuno Lima (5'), Rafa (7').

Beşiktaş controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Tüpraş Stadyumu in İstanbul.