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AS Roma vs Spezia — Serie A 2026

AS Roma
AS Roma
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Spezia
Spezia
L. Pellegrini 90+2'
R. Karsdorp 55'
Borja Mayoral 52', 17'
D. Verde 90'
Diego Farias 59'
R. Piccoli 24'
1/23/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 19Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

AS Roma42%
×Draw27%
Spezia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Roma
1.34
Spezia
1.11

AS Roma creates 21% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 5 away

creates per match

AS Roma
1.43
Spezia
1.33

allows per match

AS Roma
0.89
Spezia
1.25

finishing

AS Roma+0.32scores more
Spezia+0.07on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw
69%
AS Roma or Spezia
73%
Draw or Spezia
58%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+
19%
Spezia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals
74%
AS Roma 2+ goals
39%
AS Roma 3+ goals
15%
Spezia 1+ goals
67%
Spezia 2+ goals
30%
Spezia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)
58%
Spezia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 36 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.25 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.43 + Spezia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.34

Spezia attack 1.33 + AS Roma defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AS Roma scores more
42%
level
27%
Spezia scores more
31%

AS Roma at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
L. PellegriniAS RomaAS Roma · F
9.0

Match Events

17'
Borja Mayoral↳ L. Pellegrini
21'
Julian Chabot
24'
R. Piccoli
33'
A. Galabinov← R. Piccoli
52'
Borja Mayoral↳ J. Veretout
55'
R. Karsdorp↳ L. Spinazzola
58'
S. Bastoni← C. DellOrco
58'
G. Acampora← G. Maggiore
59'
Diego Farias↳ A. Galabinov
67'
B. Cristante← Gonzalo Villar
80'
M. Erlić← J. Chabot
80'
D. Verde← E. Gyasi
81'
Bruno Peres← R. Karsdorp
86'
Bruno Peres
87'
Borja Mayoral
89'
A. Diawara← Carles Pérez
90'
Lorenzo Pellegrini
90'
D. Verde
90+2'
L. Pellegrini↳ Bruno Peres

Possession

47%AS

Shots

14AS

Pass accuracy

50%AS

Statistics

ASSpezia
Overview
47%Possession53%
14Total Shots6
3Corners1
12Fouls13
Shots
14Total Shots6
7On Target3
5Off Target3
2Blocked0
11Inside Box6
3Outside Box0
Passing
47%Possession53%
456Total Passes503
374Accurate Passes410
82%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls13
3Yellow Cards1
2Offsides4

Match Recap: AS Roma vs Spezia

AS Roma beat Spezia 4-3 in Serie A on January 23, 2021.

Goals: Borja Mayoral (17', 52'), R. Piccoli (24'), R. Karsdorp (55'), Diego Farias (59'), D. Verde (90'), L. Pellegrini (90+2').

Spezia controlled possession (53%) and registered 6 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.