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Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Dhamk — Pro League 2018

Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dhamk
Dhamk
10/23/2020Pro LeaguePro League · Round 2Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC54%
×Draw24%
Dhamk23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.76
Dhamk
1.06

Al-Qadisiyah FC creates 66% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 111 away

creates per match

Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.72
Dhamk
1.06

allows per match

Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.06
Dhamk
1.80

finishing

Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par
Dhamk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qadisiyah FC ↓

Dhamk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Al-Qadisiyah FC or draw
77%
Al-Qadisiyah FC or Dhamk
76%
Draw or Dhamk
46%

Winning margin

Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+
30%
Dhamk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals
83%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals
52%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals
26%
Dhamk 1+ goals
65%
Dhamk 2+ goals
29%
Dhamk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)
70%
Dhamk (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qadisiyah FC at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.06 · 64 matches

Dhamk away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.80 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.72 + Dhamk defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.76

Dhamk attack 1.06 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more
54%
level
24%
Dhamk scores more
23%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Dhamk

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Dhamk 2-1 in Pro League on October 23, 2020.

The match was played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Khobar.