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Zoo Kericho vs Vihiga United FC — Super League 2018

Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
CANC
00:00
Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
5/28/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 27Kericho Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Zoo Kericho51%
×Draw26%
Vihiga United FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zoo Kericho
1.54
Vihiga United FC
0.93

Zoo Kericho creates 66% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 55 away

creates per match

Zoo Kericho
1.31
Vihiga United FC
0.80

allows per match

Zoo Kericho
1.06
Vihiga United FC
1.78

finishing

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par
Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zoo Kericho ↓

Vihiga United FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Zoo Kericho or draw
77%
Zoo Kericho or Vihiga United FC
74%
Draw or Vihiga United FC
49%

Winning margin

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
27%
Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
79%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
45%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
20%
Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
61%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
24%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
69%
Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zoo Kericho at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zoo Kericho attack 1.31 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.54

Vihiga United FC attack 0.80 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Zoo Kericho scores more
51%
level
26%
Vihiga United FC scores more
23%

Zoo Kericho at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Zoo Kericho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Zoo Kericho host Vihiga United FC

May 28, 2022: Zoo Kericho take on Vihiga United FC in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Zoo Kericho host Vihiga United FC at Kericho Green Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.