Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vihiga United FC vs Zoo Kericho — Super League 2018

Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
FT
1 – 2
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
3/27/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 18Mumias Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vihiga United FC34%
×Draw25%
Zoo Kericho41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga United FC
1.39
Zoo Kericho
1.55

Zoo Kericho creates 12% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 14 away

creates per match

Vihiga United FC
1.14
Zoo Kericho
1.64

allows per match

Vihiga United FC
1.46
Zoo Kericho
1.64

finishing

Vihiga United FC+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga United FC ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Vihiga United FC or draw
59%
Vihiga United FC or Zoo Kericho
75%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
66%

Winning margin

Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
15%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
75%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
40%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
16%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
79%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
46%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
45%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga United FC at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.46 · 56 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga United FC attack 1.14 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.39

Zoo Kericho attack 1.64 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vihiga United FC scores more
34%
level
25%
Zoo Kericho scores more
41%

Zoo Kericho at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zoo Kericho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Vihiga United FC 1–2 Zoo Kericho

Zoo Kericho beat Vihiga United FC 2-1 in Super League on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Mumias Sports Complex in Mumias.