Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zoo Kericho vs Vihiga United FC — FKF Premier League 2018

Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
FT
1 – 0
Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
3/6/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 13Kericho Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Zoo Kericho40%
×Draw30%
Vihiga United FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zoo Kericho
1.12
Vihiga United FC
0.93

Zoo Kericho creates 20% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Zoo Kericho
1.06
Vihiga United FC
0.78

allows per match

Zoo Kericho
1.08
Vihiga United FC
1.18

finishing

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par
Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zoo Kericho ↓

Vihiga United FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Zoo Kericho or draw
70%
Zoo Kericho or Vihiga United FC
70%
Draw or Vihiga United FC
60%

Winning margin

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
16%
Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
67%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
31%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
10%
Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
61%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
24%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
57%
Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zoo Kericho at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zoo Kericho attack 1.06 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.12

Vihiga United FC attack 0.78 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zoo Kericho scores more
40%
level
30%
Vihiga United FC scores more
30%

Zoo Kericho at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zoo Kericho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zoo Kericho vs Vihiga United FC

Zoo Kericho beat Vihiga United FC 1-0 in FKF Premier League on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Kericho Green Stadium in Kericho.