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Vihiga United FC vs Zoo Kericho — FKF Premier League 2018

Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
CANC
11:00
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
7/24/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 26Bukhungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Vihiga United FC43%
×Draw28%
Zoo Kericho29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga United FC
1.32
Zoo Kericho
1.04

Vihiga United FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 52 away

creates per match

Vihiga United FC
0.71
Zoo Kericho
0.90

allows per match

Vihiga United FC
1.18
Zoo Kericho
1.94

finishing

Vihiga United FC+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga United FC ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vihiga United FC or draw
71%
Vihiga United FC or Zoo Kericho
72%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
57%

Winning margin

Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
20%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
73%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
38%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
15%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
65%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
28%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
59%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga United FC at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.18 · 49 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.94 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga United FC attack 0.71 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.32

Zoo Kericho attack 0.90 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vihiga United FC scores more
43%
level
28%
Zoo Kericho scores more
29%

Vihiga United FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vihiga United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vihiga United FC face Zoo Kericho (FKF Premier League)

FKF Premier League returns with Vihiga United FC hosting Zoo Kericho. Match starts July 24, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Vihiga United FC host Zoo Kericho at Bukhungu Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.