Zoo Kericho 1–1 Kisumu All Stars: Result & Stats

Zoo Kericho

FT

1 – 1

Kisumu All Stars

11/6/2021

Super League · Round 1Kericho Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Zoo Kericho47%

×Draw27%

Kisumu All Stars26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zoo KerichoExpected goals in this matchKisumu All Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.98

Zoo Kericho

1.41

Kisumu All Stars

0.98

Zoo Kericho creates 44% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 107 away

1.31

creates per match

0.90

1.06

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Zoo Kericho

1.31

Kisumu All Stars

0.90

allows per match

Zoo Kericho

1.06

Kisumu All Stars

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zoo Kericho ↓

Kisumu All Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Zoo Kericho or draw

74%

Zoo Kericho or Kisumu All Stars

73%

Draw or Kisumu All Stars

53%

Winning margin

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+

23%

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals

76%

Zoo Kericho 2+ goals

41%

Zoo Kericho 3+ goals

17%

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals

62%

Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals

26%

Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)

64%

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zoo Kericho at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Kisumu All Stars away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.51 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zoo Kericho attack 1.31 + Kisumu All Stars defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.41

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.90 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Zoo Kericho scores more

47%

level

27%

Kisumu All Stars scores more

26%

Zoo Kericho at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Zoo Kericho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff