Kisumu All Stars 2–4 Zoo Kericho: Result & Stats

Kisumu All Stars

FT

2 – 4

Zoo Kericho

5/22/2022

Super League · Round 26Moi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kisumu All Stars44%

×Draw25%

Zoo Kericho31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kisumu All StarsExpected goals in this matchZoo Kericho

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.23

Kisumu All Stars

1.51

Zoo Kericho

1.23

Kisumu All Stars creates 23% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 14 away

1.39

creates per match

1.64

0.82

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Kisumu All Stars

1.39

Zoo Kericho

1.64

allows per match

Kisumu All Stars

0.82

Zoo Kericho

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisumu All Stars ↓

Zoo Kericho →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kisumu All Stars or draw

69%

Kisumu All Stars or Zoo Kericho

75%

Draw or Zoo Kericho

56%

Winning margin

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+

22%

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals

78%

Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals

44%

Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals

19%

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals

71%

Zoo Kericho 2+ goals

35%

Zoo Kericho 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)

59%

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisumu All Stars at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisumu All Stars attack 1.39 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.51

Zoo Kericho attack 1.64 + Kisumu All Stars defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kisumu All Stars scores more

44%

level

25%

Zoo Kericho scores more

31%

Kisumu All Stars at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kisumu All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff