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Kisumu All Stars vs Zoo Kericho — FKF Premier League 2018

Kisumu All Stars
Kisumu All Stars
CANC
00:00
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
3/18/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 25Moi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kisumu All Stars36%
×Draw26%
Zoo Kericho37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kisumu All Stars
1.29
Zoo Kericho
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 52 away

creates per match

Kisumu All Stars
0.64
Zoo Kericho
0.90

allows per match

Kisumu All Stars
1.73
Zoo Kericho
1.94

finishing

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisumu All Stars ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kisumu All Stars or draw
63%
Kisumu All Stars or Zoo Kericho
74%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
64%

Winning margin

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+
16%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals
72%
Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals
37%
Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals
14%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
73%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
38%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)
49%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisumu All Stars at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.94 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.64 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.29

Zoo Kericho attack 0.90 + Kisumu All Stars defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kisumu All Stars scores more
36%
level
26%
Zoo Kericho scores more
37%

Zoo Kericho at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Zoo Kericho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kisumu All Stars vs Zoo Kericho — Match Preview

Kisumu All Stars face Zoo Kericho on March 18, 2020 in this FKF Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kisumu All Stars host Zoo Kericho at Moi Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.