Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zoo Kericho vs Kisumu All Stars — FKF Premier League 2018

Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
FT
3 – 0
Kisumu All Stars
Kisumu All Stars
12/1/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 12Kericho Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Zoo Kericho64%
×Draw21%
Kisumu All Stars15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zoo Kericho
1.94
Kisumu All Stars
0.82

Zoo Kericho creates 137% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 11 away

creates per match

Zoo Kericho
1.06
Kisumu All Stars
0.55

allows per match

Zoo Kericho
1.08
Kisumu All Stars
2.82

finishing

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par
Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zoo Kericho ↓

Kisumu All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zoo Kericho or draw
85%
Zoo Kericho or Kisumu All Stars
79%
Draw or Kisumu All Stars
36%

Winning margin

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
38%
Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
86%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
58%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
30%
Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals
56%
Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals
20%
Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
81%
Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zoo Kericho at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Kisumu All Stars away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zoo Kericho attack 1.06 + Kisumu All Stars defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.94

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.55 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Zoo Kericho scores more
64%
level
21%
Kisumu All Stars scores more
15%

Zoo Kericho at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Zoo Kericho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Zoo Kericho 3–0 Kisumu All Stars

Zoo Kericho beat Kisumu All Stars 3-0 in FKF Premier League on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Kericho Green Stadium in Kericho.