Žilina 2–0 Dukla Banská Bystrica: Result & Stats

Žilina

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dukla Banská Bystrica

K. Bari 69'

E. Bille 62'

10/20/2024

League #332 · Round 11Štadión Pod Dubňom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Žilina50%

×Draw21%

Dukla Banská Bystrica28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŽilinaExpected goals in this matchDukla Banská Bystrica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.51

Žilina

2.07

Dukla Banská Bystrica

1.51

Žilina creates 37% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 27 away

2.33

creates per match

1.19

1.83

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Žilina

2.33

Dukla Banská Bystrica

1.19

allows per match

Žilina

1.83

Dukla Banská Bystrica

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Žilina+0.00on par

Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žilina ↓

Dukla Banská Bystrica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Žilina or draw

72%

Žilina or Dukla Banská Bystrica

79%

Draw or Dukla Banská Bystrica

50%

Winning margin

Žilina wins by 2+

29%

Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Žilina 1+ goals

87%

Žilina 2+ goals

61%

Žilina 3+ goals

34%

Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals

78%

Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals

44%

Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Žilina (draw refunded)

64%

Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žilina at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žilina attack 2.33 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.07

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 1.19 + Žilina defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Žilina scores more

50%

level

21%

Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more

28%

Žilina at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Žilina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

J. Ndjeungoue

Žilina · D

7.6

Match Events

35'

Ľubomír Willwéber

38'

Boris GodálCard upgrade

39'

41'

62'

68'

68'

T. Slebodník← D. Veselovský

69'

K. Bari

70'

S. Kopásek← K. Bari

70'

D. Alijagić← E. Bille

70'

S. Gidi← M. Káčer

77'

Samuel Kopásek

79'

T. Pališčák← P. Pekarík

85'

F. Kóša← P. Iľko

88'

A. Brenkus← M. Hlinka

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ŽilinaDukla

Overview

73%Possession27%

15Total Shots11

7Corners5

11Fouls6

Shots

15Total Shots11

4On Target3

6Off Target4

5Blocked4

6Inside Box6

9Outside Box5

Passing

73%Possession27%

679Total Passes249

583Accurate Passes160

86%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0