Dukla Banská Bystrica 3–1 Žilina: Result & Stats

Dukla Banská Bystrica

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Žilina

D. Depetris 83'

R. Polievka 77'

M. Hlinka 67'

J. Minárik 59'

12/16/2023

League #332 · Round 18Štadión SNP Štiavničky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica27%

×Draw22%

Žilina51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dukla Banská BystricaExpected goals in this matchŽilina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.98

Dukla Banská Bystrica

1.39

Žilina

1.98

Žilina creates 42% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 8 away

1.40

creates per match

2.13

1.84

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica

1.40

Žilina

2.13

allows per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica

1.84

Žilina

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par

Žilina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Banská Bystrica ↓

Žilina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Dukla Banská Bystrica or draw

49%

Dukla Banská Bystrica or Žilina

78%

Draw or Žilina

73%

Winning margin

Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+

12%

Žilina wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals

75%

Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals

40%

Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals

16%

Žilina 1+ goals

86%

Žilina 2+ goals

59%

Žilina 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)

35%

Žilina (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Banská Bystrica at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.84 · 25 matches

Žilina away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 1.40 + Žilina defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.39

Žilina attack 2.13 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more

27%

level

22%

Žilina scores more

51%

Žilina at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Žilina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

S. Gidi

Žilina · M

7.3

Match Events

46'

E. Bille← H. Addo

48'

59'

59'

67'

70'

D. Depetris← J. Považanec

73'

75'

77'

77'

80'

80'

A. Kopas← S. Gidi

83'

D. Depetris

88'

P. Leitner← M. Rusnák

90'

T. Slebodník← D. Richtárech

90'

L. Migaľa← R. Polievka

90+1'

João Guimarães← M. Pišoja

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DuklaŽilina

Overview

46%Possession54%

1Total Shots5

1Corners2

3Fouls4

Shots

1Total Shots5

0On Target1

1Off Target1

0Blocked3

0Inside Box3

1Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

166Total Passes199

116Accurate Passes151

70%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

3Fouls4

2Offsides0