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Žilina vs Dukla Banská Bystrica — League #332 2026

Žilina
Žilina
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Dukla Banská Bystrica
Dukla Banská Bystrica
T. Nemčík 61'
M. Rymarenko 89'
Enzo Arevalo 44'
M. Hlinka 16'
R. Polievka 8'
9/16/2023League #332League #332 · Round 7Štadión Pod Dubňom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Žilina50%
×Draw21%
Dukla Banská Bystrica28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žilina
2.07
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.51

Žilina creates 37% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 27 away

creates per match

Žilina
2.33
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.19

allows per match

Žilina
1.83
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.81

finishing

Žilina+0.00on par
Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žilina ↓

Dukla Banská Bystrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Žilina or draw
72%
Žilina or Dukla Banská Bystrica
79%
Draw or Dukla Banská Bystrica
50%

Winning margin

Žilina wins by 2+
29%
Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Žilina 1+ goals
87%
Žilina 2+ goals
61%
Žilina 3+ goals
34%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals
78%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals
44%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Žilina (draw refunded)
64%
Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žilina at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žilina attack 2.33 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.07

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 1.19 + Žilina defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Žilina scores more
50%
level
21%
Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more
28%

Žilina at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Žilina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
R. Polievka
16'
M. Hlinka
28'
Andrej Stojchevski
44'
Enzo Arevalo↳ R. Polievka
46'
P. Leitner← A. Stojchevski
46'
A. Essomba← P. Iľko
61'
T. Nemčík↳ S. Gidi
74'
D. Javorček← M. Rusnák
75'
T. Jambor← H. Addo
76'
T. Slebodník← Enzo Arevalo
78'
P. Myslovič← S. Gidi
84'
Krisztián Bari
85'
Timotej Jambor
87'
João Victor← D. Richtárech
89'
M. Rymarenko↳ R. Polievka
90+1'
M. Pišoja← R. Polievka
90+2'
S. Svetlík← M. Rymarenko
90+2'
A. Hanes← M. Hlinka

Possession

66%Žilina

Shots

19Žilina

Statistics

ŽilinaDukla
Overview
66%Possession34%
19Total Shots9
8Corners2
13Fouls13
Shots
19Total Shots9
12On Target7
3Off Target1
4Blocked1
Passing
66%Possession34%
Goalkeeping
3Saves11
Discipline
13Fouls13
3Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Žilina vs Dukla Banská Bystrica

Dukla Banská Bystrica beat Žilina 4-1 in League #332 on September 16, 2023.

Goals: R. Polievka (8'), M. Hlinka (16'), Enzo Arevalo (44'), T. Nemčík (61'), M. Rymarenko (89').

Žilina controlled possession (66%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at Štadión Pod Dubňom in Žilina.