Dukla Banská Bystrica 1–3 Žilina: Result & Stats

Dukla Banská Bystrica

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Žilina

D. Depetris 71'

R. Galčík 90+4'

A. Kopas 89'

M. Rusnák 36'

5/23/2023

League #332 · Conference League Play-offs - Semi-finalsŠtadión SNP Štiavničky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica27%

×Draw22%

Žilina51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dukla Banská BystricaExpected goals in this matchŽilina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.98

Dukla Banská Bystrica

1.39

Žilina

1.98

Žilina creates 42% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 8 away

1.40

creates per match

2.13

1.84

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica

1.40

Žilina

2.13

allows per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica

1.84

Žilina

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par

Žilina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Banská Bystrica ↓

Žilina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Dukla Banská Bystrica or draw

49%

Dukla Banská Bystrica or Žilina

78%

Draw or Žilina

73%

Winning margin

Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+

12%

Žilina wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals

75%

Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals

40%

Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals

16%

Žilina 1+ goals

86%

Žilina 2+ goals

59%

Žilina 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)

35%

Žilina (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Banská Bystrica at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.84 · 25 matches

Žilina away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 1.40 + Žilina defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.39

Žilina attack 2.13 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more

27%

level

22%

Žilina scores more

51%

Žilina at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Žilina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

Andrija Balić

36'

M. Rusnák↳ A. Kaprálik

51'

R. Galčík← A. Bikoula

57'

D. Depetris← M. Rymarenko

57'

D. Richtárech← A. Balić

57'

T. Záhumenský← M. Pišoja

65'

71'

77'

79'

79'

79'

87'

B. Anang← S. Gidi

89'

A. Kopas↳ M. Rusnák

90+1'

A. Hanes← B. Ľupták

90+4'

R. Galčík↳ Ľ. Belko

Possession

Shots

Statistics

DuklaŽilina

Overview

53%Possession47%

18Total Shots11

11Corners4

8Fouls15

Shots

18Total Shots11

6On Target7

5Blocked4

Passing

53%Possession47%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Žilina

Žilina beat Dukla Banská Bystrica 3-1 in League #332 on May 23, 2023.

Goals: M. Rusnák (36'), D. Depetris (71'), A. Kopas (89'), R. Galčík (90+4').

Dukla Banská Bystrica controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Štadión SNP Štiavničky in Banská Bystrica.

Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Žilina — League #332 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Žilina