Železničar Pančevo 3–1 Jedinstvo Ub: Result & Stats

Železničar Pančevo

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Jedinstvo Ub

S. Cvetković 78' (pen)

B. Knežević 36'

N. Đuričić 7'

E. Hoard 3'

4/14/2025

Super Liga · Relegation Round - 1Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Železničar Pančevo62%

×Draw21%

Jedinstvo Ub17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Železničar PančevoExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Ub

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.91

Železničar Pančevo

1.98

Jedinstvo Ub

0.91

Železničar Pančevo creates 118% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 19 away

1.53

creates per match

0.74

1.08

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Železničar Pančevo

1.53

Jedinstvo Ub

0.74

allows per match

Železničar Pančevo

1.08

Jedinstvo Ub

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Železničar Pančevo+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Železničar Pančevo ↓

Jedinstvo Ub →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Železničar Pančevo or draw

83%

Železničar Pančevo or Jedinstvo Ub

79%

Draw or Jedinstvo Ub

38%

Winning margin

Železničar Pančevo wins by 2+

38%

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Železničar Pančevo 1+ goals

86%

Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals

59%

Železničar Pančevo 3+ goals

31%

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals

60%

Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals

23%

Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Železničar Pančevo (draw refunded)

79%

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Železničar Pančevo at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

Jedinstvo Ub away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Železničar Pančevo attack 1.53 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.98

Jedinstvo Ub attack 0.74 + Železničar Pančevo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Železničar Pančevo scores more

62%

level

21%

Jedinstvo Ub scores more

17%

Železničar Pančevo at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Železničar Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

M. Mitrović

Železničar Pančevo · M

8.0

Match Events

3'

E. Hoard

7'

N. Đuričić↳ M. Mitrović

36'

B. Knežević

43'

Aleksa Paic

46'

U. Stojanović← M. Milikić

50'

Uroš Savković

64'

B. Sekulić← M. Konatar

64'

M. Ćurić← D. Grgić

75'

L. Mladenović← M. Mitrović

75'

U. Stevančević← D. Miladinović

75'

N. Doderović← V. Damjanić

78'

S. CvetkovićPenalty

81'

P. Gigić← N. Jovanović

84'

R. Lazić← R. Denzell

84'

D. Aćimović← A. Paić

85'

Boris Sekulić

89'

M. Spasojević← S. Pirgić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ŽelezničarJedinstvo

Overview

54%Possession46%

15Total Shots9

2Corners5

22Fouls25

Shots

15Total Shots9

10On Target3

4Off Target4

1Blocked2

9Inside Box6

6Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

414Total Passes338

336Accurate Passes249

81%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

22Fouls25

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1